As the globe continues to warm, the Canadian Prairies — home to some of the country’s most productive farmland — are undergoing dramatic shifts in water availability and land suitability. To better understand these changes, Canadian Water Network (CWN) partnered with the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) at the University of Regina and ClimateWest to explore what the future holds for the agriculture sector in the Canadian Prairies. The valuable research conducted by this partnership was funded, in part, by the Royal Bank of Canada’s Tech for Nature program.

At the heart of this project is a GIS-based visualization tool designed to help agricultural organizations, policymakers, and researchers understand and respond to projected climate shifts. The findings underscore the critical importance of water availability and strategic adaptation in the face of rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

Climate models predict that the Prairie region is expected to experience significant warming, with annual mean temperatures rising by between 3 and 10°C by the end of the century. Precipitation is also projected to increase, particularly in spring, but more frequent and intense heatwaves may offset the benefits. These changes could extend the growing season but also increase the number of hot days and nights, which can stress crops and reduce yields.

The research reveals a dynamic shift in land suitability for crops like spring wheat. Some historically marginal areas may become more viable, while others could face increasing moisture limitations. Spring wheat and barley may experience short-term yield gains, especially in northern Prairie agricultural regions, but these gains are likely to reverse by the end of the century. In contrast, canola is a heat-sensitive crop that is projected to suffer significant yield declines. The spatial disparities underscore the uneven impact of climate change across the Prairies.

It’s important to note that the models depict the worst-case scenarios, assuming no proactive adaptive management practices by farmers. In reality, most farmers adjust their practices based on years, if not decades, of experience. This research will help inform programming that supports farmers in adapting to a changing climate.

This research makes it clear, however, that future changes in water availability resulting from a changing climate will require adaptation. As warming trends continue, agriculture in the Prairies must evolve through informed crop selection and water management strategies. The GIS-based tool developed through this project will be an asset in informing decisions.

Although this research focuses on the agriculture sector, water knows no boundaries. Many Prairie communities rely on surface water sources, such as rivers and reservoirs, for drinking water. Reduced water availability will mean lower water levels and increased pressure on these sources, leading to more frequent conservation measures and restrictions for Prairie communities. With this in mind, building strong working relationships across sectors is imperative as our climate continues to change. The time for collaborative action is now.