Reflections is a monthly blog series authored by Canadian Water Network’s (CWN) CEO Nicola Crawhall. This series is designed for decision-makers navigating complex water-related challenges. It helps leaders stay ahead of change and make informed decisions that shape the future of water in Canada.

Looking back, January 2026 may be remembered as the point when Canadians woke up to the reality of water scarcity, particularly groundwater scarcity, amid climate change and rapid growth. We know that Canada has 20 percent of the world’s total freshwater, but only about seven percent is renewable. This makes security, not abundance, the right frame for the decade ahead.

Two alarms in January

Two alarms went off in January that should prompt governments to focus on water supply as an urgent issue. One is that Region of Waterloo put a temporary halt on supporting approvals for new developments in high-growth areas supplied by the Mannheim Service Area (Kitchener, Waterloo, and parts of Cambridge) due to water capacity constraints in a system that relies about 80 percent on groundwater. Certainly, the abruptness of the announcement was surprising. But the issue has been front and centre for over 20 years, with the Region closely monitoring its groundwater supply and promoting aggressive water efficiency programs to reduce demand.

The second alarm was precipitated by a new United Nations report that declared that the world has entered an era of Global Water Bankruptcy, “a persistent shortage whereby water systems can no longer realistically return to their historical baselines.” This has been caused by the combined pressures of climate-induced drought, which have depleted aquifers, as well as increased industrial and residential demand drawing down this dwindling water supply faster than the water can be replenished. This situation is not temporary. It is ‘irreversible’ and requires the world’s immediate attention.

Water-rich doesn’t mean water-secure

Globally, nearly two billion urban residents live with vulnerable water supplies. This includes Cape Town, South Africa, which narrowly avoided ‘Day Zero’ in 2018. For Canadians, the Region of Waterloo’s situation is a reminder that risk is not “elsewhere.”

• Fast growth meets finite supply. In 2024, the Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo census metropolitan area was among Canada’s fastest growing regions in 2024 (it experienced approximately 4.9 percent growth). In the same year, the City of Kitchener was Canada’s second fastest growing city with over six percent growth. Growth changes water demand, and infrastructure needs, quickly.
• Drought conditions on the West and East costs. British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has faced repeated drought conditions since 2022. At one point, a local state of emergency was declared because the region’s water supply had reached historic low levels. Summer 2025 brought drought conditions to the East Coast, which led to situations where homeowners had to refill empty wells.
• Water stress in the Prairies. Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan continue to cycle through drought, with glacier retreat reducing late‑summer stability of glacier‑fed rivers that underpin municipal supply, hydropower, and irrigation. Research highlights heightened risk for more than one million Albertans who rely on the Bighorn Dam for their water supply.
• Agriculture feels it first. Despite higher average crop yields from longer growing seasons, intermittent drought produces large crop losses in bad years. For example, in 2021, canola and wheat production fell more than 35 percent nationally. Forward-looking studies are projecting dramatic shifts in water availability and land suitability.

Groundwater: Canada’s out-of-sight crisis

Groundwater quietly supplies many communities. A 2009 report by the Council of Canadian Academies estimated that about 30 percent of Canadians, and more than 80 percent of rural Canadians, relied on groundwater. The report concluded that “there is a critical lack of data on: groundwater allocations, actual withdrawals of groundwater, and volumes discharged or reused.” In 2020, the Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) called climate impacts on groundwater an “out of sight crisis.”

Some progress has been made at the national level since then. In 2024, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) completed Canada1Water (C1W) — the first full-scale simulation of how climate change may impact groundwater and surface water resources in Canada. Running the simulation can give us a better understanding of future water supply trends. This is a good start, but we need a plan of action.

Like so many issues in Canada, the devil is in the multi-jurisdictional detail. The Canada Water Agency, formally established in 2024, is developing a water security strategy. That matters. However, this urgent issue needs to be addressed at the regional and local levels. Growth projections, industrial and residential demand, and permits to take water need to be integrated with groundwater and surface water analysis and climate models to provide a realistic picture of the capacity and sustainability of the water supply. Indigenous communities, non-Indigenous communities, and industries at risk need to be engaged and brought into collaborative solutions.

Join us at Blue Cities 2026 (June 9-10)

CWN will shine a spotlight on water security as a national priority at Blue Cities 2026. The conversation will feature Mark Fisher, president of the Canada Water Agency, and a panel of experts. We hope you will join the conversation