This fall, the adaptive planning (AP) project team has been hard at work — hosting national workshops, refining priorities, and building resources to help utilities plan for an uncertain future.

What we’ve been doing

Scenario design workshop in Ottawa

A major highlight of the quarter was the national scenario planning workshop in Ottawa, which brought together senior utility leaders from across Canada. Participants worked through the step-by-step scenario-planning process that explored climate, economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties. Participants also learned how to stress-test strategies for divergent futures.

At the workshop, utility leaders built practical skills for planning under deep uncertainty. Participants emphasized that traditional, prediction-based planning no longer reflects today’s realities. Instead, scenario planning equips utilities to consider multiple plausible futures, evaluate strategies and assess risks, and design capital and operational plans that remain robust even when conditions shift.

Discussions highlighted three cross-cutting risks shaping Canada’s water future: political instability, pressures on water supply and quality, and economic uncertainty. Participants developed four contrasting futures to examine how these forces might combine—and how utilities can adapt through flexible investments, clearer communication with councils and the public, and stronger cross-departmental coordination.

Community of Practice on financing and asset management

Following the scenario design workshop was the second AP Community of Practice (CoP) session that focused on financing and asset management. Experts from the U.K., Australia, and the U.S. illustrated how AP and portfolio management can reduce long-term costs while improving resilience. Their experiences underscore that adaptive pathway solutions, decision triggers, and effects-based planning are not theoretical—they are practical tools already improving utility performance.

Key insights from the CoP session showed that AP isn’t just about resilience — it’s also a smart financial strategy for today’s utilities. Presenters explained that traditional planning methods don’t work well when there’s a lot of uncertainty. Instead, AP helps utilities make major investments at the right time, avoid spending too early, and keep options open for the future. Breaking projects into flexible steps, continually monitoring triggers, and effect-based planning outcomes can lower long-term capital costs, reduce financial risks associated with climate change and growth volatility, and strengthen business cases with regulators and councils. Utilities also saw the benefits of using real-time data, forecasting different scenarios, and managing decisions at the portfolio level to keep investments aligned with changing risks and community needs.

Why it matters

Together, these efforts signal a shift across the Canadian water sector: from rigid, forecast-dependent planning to dynamic, learning-based approaches that strengthen resilience, justify investments, and prepare utilities for whatever future unfolds.