In November 2024, CWN launched a project, Managing future risks and building resiliency through adaptive planning. Here’s a quick primer that explains adaptive planning (AP):

In the parlance of enterprise risk management, organizations need to understand, to the degree possible, known unknowns and unknown unknowns to create effective risk mitigation and resiliency plans.

Known unknowns are recognized gaps in our knowledge, such as the level of risk to critical infrastructure posed by extreme storms or unrealized water demand projections due to changes in demographics or technology.

Unknown unknowns are unanticipated circumstances that can seriously impact an organization and its operations, such as unforeseen economic upheaval or catastrophic infrastructure failure.

To address these unknowns and plan more effectively for future uncertainty, water utilities around the globe are turning to Adaptive Planning (AP).

Water management planning in the face of future uncertainty

Managing for future uncertainties builds organizational and infrastructure system resiliency, yet conventional water management planning is no longer adequate in assessing plausible future uncertainties and associated risks. As a result, AP has emerged as a preferred approach to decision-making to address future variability. AP uses scenario analysis to evaluate plausible future conditions and develop solution pathways for each likely scenario (Figure 1). The approach breaks adaptation actions into key decision-points over the long-term, enabling adjustments to be made based on how the future unfolds. Because AP considers future uncertainties to create adaptable plans that can be adjusted as conditions change, it reduces infrastructure investment risks and more accurately reflects potential future costs.

Figure 1: Scenario analysis is used to evaluate plausible futures; solution pathways are developed, as well as decision points for when to change from one solution pathway to another. (Source: Kavita Heyn, Manager, Adaptive Planning, Demand Management & Climate Division; City of Portland Water Bureau)

Components of adaptive planning

  • Visioning and problem definition: Engage early with internal and external stakeholders to develop an ideal future endpoint and define the problem(s) to be solved. This process enables the development of clearly articulated objectives and constraints, and scoping of the planning effort.
  • Scenario analysis: Evaluate how different strategies perform under multiple scenarios, like climate change, demographic shifts, growth and development, and evolving policies and regulations. This will support your next steps to develop options for a range of plausible future conditions.
  • Identify and assess options: Develop and assess possible options and actions that address vulnerabilities and comprise solution pathways.
  • Determine solution pathways: Map sequences of options and actions and build solution pathways.
  • Establish decision points: Determine the conditions or indicators that signal when a change in the planned solution pathway is needed.
  • Monitor and evaluate: Determine metrics and develop and implement a monitoring and evaluation process to regularly assess trending conditions and the effectiveness of actions. This will enable timely adjustments to be made.

Benefits of adaptive planning

  • Enhanced stakeholder engagement: AP helps stakeholders and the public understand the risks, options and reasons for the choices that are made. Changing conditions due to climate, population growth, economics and other forces are abstract. By presenting a range of plausible futures and solution pathways, stakeholders can “see” where, when, how and why infrastructure investments must be made.
  • Reduced investment risk: By setting out key decision points over the planning horizon, AP enables adjustments to be made depending on how future conditions evolve, thereby reducing the risk of insufficient or inappropriate infrastructure investments.
  • Financial preparedness: AP enables an understanding of potential future costs with changing circumstances and supports preparatory financial planning.
  • Lower risk and more resilience: The AP process identifies actions for each possible scenario, creating flexible solutions that can accommodate change, reducing risks associated with insufficient or inappropriate actions. Built-in monitoring and evaluation ensure that decisions are made based on the most up-to-date information.
  • Improved communications and collaboration: Effective risk assessment requires input from various stakeholders across the organization, strengthening team cohesion and overall organizational resilience. This collaborative approach encourages open communication, fosters a sense of shared responsibility and helps staff develop a deeper understanding of each other’s roles and challenges.

Advancing adaptive planning in Canada

To share AP knowledge, insights, case studies and applications, a national Community of Practice comprised of Canadian and international water utility leaders and AP experts and practitioners is launching in June 2025 and will continue through to the end of the project at the close of 2026. If you are interested in participating, please complete the registration form.