Reflections is a monthly blog series by Canadian Water Network’s (CWN) CEO Nicola Crawhall. This series is designed for decision-makers navigating complex water-related challenges. It helps leaders stay ahead of change and make informed decisions that shape the future of water in Canada.

This month’s blog builds on CWN’s participation in the Canada Water Agency’s consultation on a National Water Security Strategy. The consultation took place in Winnipeg last week, from October 19-20, 2026.

Fruit, vegetable, and cattle farmers in British Columbia’s (BC) Okanagan Valley are praying for snow this winter. They’ve experienced drought conditions for the last four years and desperately need a robust snowpack to irrigate their fields next spring to avoid a repeat of this summer’s Level 3 water restrictions, which left farmers with only 30 percent of their usual water allocation.

The ongoing water supply challenges in BC are a harbinger of things to come across Canada. Groundwater, which a third of Canadians and 80 percent of rural residents depend on, is at risk. In Nova Scotia, 46 percent of residents rely on groundwater. The provincial government’s 2025 Climate Change Risk Assessment identified drought as a key climate hazard affecting drinking water and agriculture. Some urban centres, like the Region of Waterloo in Ontario, are also taking measures to mitigate climate risks to their groundwater-sourced drinking water.

River systems, particularly those that are glacial-fed, are also under threat. According to the Canadian Ice Service, glaciers in the Canadian Rockies have lost about 70 percent of their mass since the 1850s, and some will disappear altogether by 2100. As glaciers retreat, they significantly affect local ecosystems and alter the hydrology of river systems like the Athabasca and Bow rivers. This leads to changes in water flow and temperature, erosion, and sediment transport.

Changes in water availability or flows  may also negatively impact the cultural practices and rights of Indigenous communities

In the coming decades, rainfall that feeds crops in the southern Prairies is expected to decline as temperatures rise. This will affect yields for canola and other crops.

Other economic sectors will also be affected, such as hydropower that relies on consistent water levels and data centres in search of water for their cooling systems.

This is why the Canada Water Agency’s National Water Security Strategy,  currently under development, is so critically important to the future of Canada.

The Strategy is following an important international trend in recognizing the urgent need to prepare for water shortages and extreme weather now and over the coming decades. Countries that prepare for this inevitable eventuality will be best positioned to reliably supply water to their communities, build confidence among economic sectors and investors, and protect property to reduce post-disaster recovery costs.

Deciding on decision-making frameworks

Climate experts Matthew Coulton and Alison Gardner, through observing how Australian authorities manage extreme water supply shortages, argue that climate preparedness is often treated as either a technical or modelling issue. The focus should be on practical decision-making frameworks in the face of competing needs under extreme conditions.

Decision-making frameworks already operate at various scales. The federal government coordinates international and interprovincial transboundary water management agreements. Provincial and territorial governments are responsible for water allocation permitting, and municipalities make water allocation decisions at the local level. These governance structures are all important, but need to be stress-tested to see if they will be sufficient when demand and competition for scarce water intensify under more extreme climate conditions.

Notwithstanding these government structures, there is another vital level of decision-making that needs to be nurtured—self-organization at the local and watershed level (i.e., cooperative water governance).

Past experience demonstrates that effective collaborative decision-making in water-stressed areas requires three things: recognition of water stress, compelling visual evidence, and a neutral facilitator.

Firstly, there needs to be consensus that a shared region is water-stressed. It may sound odd, but water shortages don’t always look like a parched savannah with tumbleweeds, especially when the shortage is underground.

Second, visual modelling and scenarios can paint a clear picture of the range of likely futures. Anyone who has seen visualizations of sea level rise in coastal cities understands how powerful and compelling these images can be.

Third, a neutral convener (or facilitator) is needed to bring together water users, water rights holders, and others interested in water management before acute water shortages or other extreme conditions arise. Building these relationships in advance creates the trust needed for collaborative decision making when difficult choices must be made. When water becomes scarce, strong relationships are far more likely to lead to solutions than conflict or litigation.

The Okanagan Valley illustrates this point. Faced with restrictions this past summer, farmers worked together to share their limited water allocations and help one another manage through the shortage.  Across Canada, numerous watershed-scale collaborative models already exist—from Quebec’s organismes des bassins versants to Ontario’s source water protection committees, Alberta’s irrigation districts, and BC’s watershed councils. These organizations offer valuable lessons in building local capacity, fostering collaboration among water users, and managing competing interests. The National Water Security Strategy should draw on and strengthen these proven approaches.

It is vital that the National Water Security Strategy lay the groundwork for Canadians to collaborate to address growing water risks. Technical solutions, data, and modelling are needed, but they are not sufficient on their own. Ultimately, the strength of relationships, a shared approach, and collaboration across sectors, communities, and watersheds will determine our ability to navigate the increasingly difficult years ahead.